News & History: October 2008 Archives

These gas prices are just insane. I actually had the thought to post my thoughts on this (including a slight conspiracy theory) over a week ago (even before James’s post last week, but haven’t had the time to pull all of my thoughts together. But the continued drop in gas prices is driving me to write about it now.

I mean, really — gas prices in Richmond went below $2 yesterday at some gas stations. Is that crazy or what? I cannot remember the last time gas prices were below $2? Does anyone?

Take a look at the price of oil over the last year. Oil prices are about 25% lower than a year ago, and gas prices are about 25% lower than a year ago. (I’m using Richmond prices as my point of reference.) Seems to make sense, right? Well, there should be a delay for refining the oil into gas and then getting it delivered. (I still haven’t found a reliable source for how long that takes on average.) And consider the peak summer prices to now — around $145 per gallon of oil in early- to mid-July to about $60 now, but gas prices have gone from $4.00 per gallon to $2.20 per gallon. That’s about a 45% reduction in gas prices while oil prices have tumbled almost 60%. Those two averages don’t seem to line up!

You’re forgetting that crude oil prices only account for somewhere between 45% and 60% of the overall cost of gas (a 10-percent rise or fall in oil price should yield about a 5- to 6-percent rise or drop in gas prices), with transportation and taxes (both relatively fixed costs) making up the difference. (Here’s an excellent primer on the topic and the trends throughout this decade.) And with this in mind, the reduction from peak in summer to now appears to be more rational than the rapid reduction in the last month.

So, why are we seeing such a strong match in the change in prices this past month? It could be that we were getting gouged over the summer. (It sure felt like it at times.) Or you can just fall back on the old supply-and-demand theory. That could drive these drops because there is excess supply now. But I really don’t sense that people are cutting back on driving that much, resulting in an oversupply situation.

Comparing those two situations, I feel like my first explanation was more likely (gouging in the summer, with the uncertainty of the hurricane season around). However, I was wondering on a drive in to work a couple of weeks ago whether there could be a situation where the suppliers want to reduce the pain on the consumer leading into the election. But that leads to the question — why would they want to do that? I cannot easily answer it, as I start to get myself twisted around on the pros and cons of such a seemingly irrational decision. The best I can do is that if Barack Obama wins, with a Democrat-controlled Congress, you’ll likely see offshore drilling restricted again. (The previous restriction was allowed to expire earlier this month.) That reduces easier drilling opportunities for US oil companies. But at the same time, increased drilling is going to eventually drive down prices for oil across the board, which may make some of these (and other) drilling opportunities less cost-effective. And these explanations are still way too simplistic for what I’m thinking and seeing, but I feel limited by time, space, and my own mental capacity and knowledge to sort through it.

So, why are the prices dropping so much more than expected with the cost of oil? You got me. And if it moves up over the winter to something more in line with oil prices, perhaps there was something going on with driving down gas prices more than expected.

That’s it for my irrational thoughts at the moment. I’ll go back to trying to be rational tomorrow.

Do you live in Virginia? Or New Mexico? (Or maybe Colorado or New Hampshire.) If you do, you may hold in your hands the biggest chance that your one vote might change the course of the election. There’s a one-in-ten-million chance your vote could be decisive. I replicate the image (without permission, but with attribution) below so that you see what the current math looks like that getting an extra vote in any given state could turn the tide. The best return to value appears to be in New Mexico and Virginia.

(from the Red State Blue State Rich State Poor State blog)

Not that you should need this encouragement to vote. Just know that you are going to stand in line for a long time if you haven’t voted absentee. Crowds are going to be high this year — I’m virtually certain of that.

Something else I’m certain of? Virginia will still have a Senator Warner. I was thinking that with the right turnout, maybe he’d break 60% of all votes, but it’s looking like a near sure thing. The state Republicans really blew it by nominating Jim Gilmore. The next question is, will they continue to retrench on those conservative lines or open up the tent more? I’ll be waiting and watching.

Last Friday, I posted an entry that linked to an online questionnaire that might help you figure out how well aligned you are to the presidential candidates and their positions. That survey includes the candidates for the 5 best-known, national parties.

Well, it turns out that a sixth candidate has qualified to be voted for in the Commonwealth of Virginia. So if you want to check out the positions of the Constitution Party. (He did get the endorsement of former Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul.)

Today is a non-family news day. I just have a few links I want to dump out there for people to consider/ponder.

For those of us who have been in Scouting before, you’re probably aware that Scouting is becoming less popular as an extracurricular activity. I was a Cub Scout (and ultimately an Eagle Scout)), and my (and Kellie’s) hope is that Will wants to do Cub Scouting) starting next year. The local council has recently launched a new recruiting campaign tied to less refined characteristics of young boys. In some ways, it’s at odds with how you think of Scouts (A Scout is trustworthy, loyal, helpful…), but at the same time, isn’t this what growing up as a boy should be about?

In no way, shape or form do I expect to ever step up to this weight class — of food eating. Ponder it for a minute. I think this is more calories than Michael Phelps eats in a day.

Lastly, are you still on the fence on who to vote for in the upcoming US presidential election? Or just curious about how well you match up with the positions of the various candidates? Well Glassbooth attempts to help you quantify the level of similarity between what you think is most important (and what you believe, on a simplistic 5-point rating level) and what all 5 major candidates’ positions are. Don’t use this as your only source of decison-making, but it will be thought-provoking if you see a candidate you never thought was right for you might be more right than you think.

I’ll post my results on the 5 candidates closer to election time. Anyone willing to post their results in the comments is always welcome.

OK, so it’s almost a month later. So sue us! In reality, they couldn’t fit us in in September, and once the October books opened up, many of those time slots for annual checkups quickly filled up. But here we are, and Will continues to blow through the physical barriers:

Height & Weight (5 years): 45.25”, 42 pounds

Height & Weight (6 years): 49.5” (+4.25”), 57 pounds (+15 pounds)

Yes, that’s a huge jump. But I think it also reflects about 14 months of growth, as his 5-year checkup was done in August (for a kindergarten physical) and this most recent one is in October. But from a percentile stand point (on the graph), he’s gone from under 95% at age 5 to well over 95% at age 6 on height; the weight is now up to 95% at age 6 (not sure where the weight was at age 5, but much lower).

As for Daniel and his ear infection, he still had a midgrade fever today, so we had to keep him home today. With Will’s checkup today, that meant a lot of juggling of schedules (including both Kellie and I being out of the office at the same time for a short period). He seems to be doing better this evening (temps been down all day), but we’ll see how things are in the morning.

Changing gears off the family, this one made me go - What??? Sometimes, I wonder why people go through with these things. Are they really that self-important? There is a Nebraska state senator who is trying to sue God in court. It got thrown out of court for the most mundane of reasons.

Today isn’t a big day in history. There’s just this bit about some guy named Chris finding an island he called San Salvador. And 96 years ago, Rice University held its opening ceremonies to launch a new institution of higher learning in the then hinterlands of Houston.

I guess someone else got to do the heavy lifting. I, at least, am the beneficiary of these two events. Everyone got to relax today — Kellie headed back to the Folk Festival to see Dale Watson again — and now I just need to figure out how the Skins lost to the Rams today.

Lunch gave us an opportunity to take a few shots of the kids. Not sure why the focus was slightly off on these photos, but I tried to touch them up a little. Sean’s hair gel is courtesy of fish sticks (in case you’re looking for something with exceptional hold).